Etats Unis , 2017/18

[gsgs]

ca commence deja :

http://magictour.free.fr/us1744.GIF


dans tous les regions !

[this was wrong, it starts in Texas , I mixed up the regions , see week 45 below]


report en Anglais : http://cdc.gov/flu/weekly

[gsgs]

semaine 45 :

http://magictour.free.fr/17-45.GIF


ca commence en Texas

[gsgs]

week 46 = thanksgiving ?  not available yet http://cdc.gov/flu/weekly
Oklahoma : https://www.ok.gov/health2/documents/ILI%20Clinicians%20Graph%202009-2013%20-%20Week%2040.pdf
Massachussetts : http://blog.mass.gov/publichealth/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2017/11/Weekly-Flu-Report-11-24-2017.pdf
Kansas : http://www.kdheks.gov/flu/surveillance.htm



beaucoup de H3N2 sequences des Etats Unis , je downloaded du genbank
471=59+52+72+92+102+94 genomes May2017 - Oct2017 .

tout est normal

http://magictour.free.fr/32-17d2.GIF

[gsgs]

semaine 46 : https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/

now available
region 1,4,6 elevated

[gsgs]

Dr Anthony Fauci, le directeur de l'Institut national de l'allergie
et les maladies infectieuses, a averti mercredi que les États-Unis
pourrait connaître une «saison grippale relativement sévère».

-----------------------------------------

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy
and Infectious Diseases, warned Wednesday that the United States
could experience a “relatively severe influenza season.”

http://www.latimes.com/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-flu-season-h3n2-story.html

[gsgs]

regions 1,4,6,7 elevated

 Phylogenetic analysis of the HA genes from 166 A(H3N2) viruses revealed extensive genetic diversity with multiple clades/subclades co-circulating. The HA genes of circulating viruses belonged to clade 3C.2a (n=128) or subclade 3C.2a1 (n=38). 12 influenza A(H3N2) viruses were antigenically characterized, and 11 (92%) A(H3N2) viruses tested were well-inhibited (reacting at titers that were within fourfold of the homologous virus titer) by ferret antisera raised against A/Michigan/15/2014 (3C.2a), a cell propagated A/Hong Kong/4801/2014-like reference virus representing the A(H3N2) component of 2017–18 Northern Hemisphere influenza vaccines.

[gsgs]

semaine 49


http://magictour.free.fr/us1749.GIF

region 6 = Texas

States : TX,DC?,CT,KT,HI

[gsgs]

semaine 50 : http://magictour.free.fr/us1750.GIF

TX,CT,AR,AZ,KA,KT,MO

[gsgs]

semaine 51 :  http://magictour.free.fr/us1751.GIF

très mauvais dans TX, AR, Mo, vient du Sud


La côte est et la côte ouest le recevront vraisemblablement
quelques semaines plus tard


------------------------------------
very bad in TX,AR,MO, comes from the South

East Coast and West Coast will presumably get it some weeks later

[gsgs]

week52 : peek in Texas !  [ 3 times as high as last season ]

still not much unusual in the East (NY,PA), starts in IN,OH

http://magictour.free.fr/us1752.GIF

[gsgs]

week 1 : http://magictour.free.fr/us1801.GIF
week 2 : http://magictour.free.fr/us1802.GIF

going up again in TX

South, Sud 3x
USA , 2x

[gsgs]

still increasing in regions 1-8 in week 04 : http://magictour.free.fr/us1804.GIF

influenza and pneumonia mortality is up in week 2
but not deaths from all causes !?!

[gsgs]

week 5 : ILI is still climbing , higher now than the peak of pandemic H1N1 in 2009 !

more later

-------------------------------------------
P+I mortality ratio is as in the previous week
total deaths is still low, I speculate that this is because "%complete"
refers to P+I only and all deaths is less complete than this.
max is in week 1 , where we had ~3000 additional deaths,
so for a wave of 10 weeks that would make 30000, not so unusual.

4700 flu-deaths and 5600 excess pneumonia deaths until week 03
makes ~25000 excess P+I deaths for the wave, expect ~same
amount of excess cardiovascular (cv) deaths
(could be less this season ? no signs yet for excess cv-deaths)

======================

not much Aussie-flu in Europe , except Scotland

[gsgs]

36% vaccine effectiveness in USA
25% for H3N2
http://www.flu.org.cn/en/article_detail?action=ql&uid=&pd=&articleId=12454